Panerai’s decline

There is no gentle way to say it: Panerai is in decline, and the warning signs are hard to ignore.

Weak Secondary-Market Performance

Anyone following the secondary watch market can see that most Panerai models are struggling to sell, and prices have fallen sharply. Only a handful of references continue to trade above retail, including the pre-Vendôme 5218 series, some of the earliest Vendôme-era releases, and the Submersible Bronzo models. For most other pieces, values have depreciated significantly.

A recent report from Subdial, a UK-based watch buying and selling platform, suggests that while the broader secondary watch market has rebounded, Panerai has been left far behind. That raises an obvious question: why would an enthusiast buy a Panerai when watches from other brands appear to be stronger investments? The report adds to other reports suggesting that Panerai shipped 31% fewer timepieces in 2025 than in 2024.

Pricing and Brand Viability

When you combine higher boutique pricing with poor value retention, inflation, and the availability of brand-new 2026 Panerai releases on the grey market at steep discounts, the brand’s long-term viability becomes difficult to defend.

And this is before even discussing the current catalog.

Loss of Identity

Much of Panerai’s recognition was built years ago, when the brand leaned heavily on its history and design DNA. At its peak, Panerai—or, more accurately, Richemont—began flooding the market with too many releases each year, diluting the very brand value it had created.

That dilution was compounded by constant shifts in case sizes, attempts to appeal to smaller-wrist customers, a lack of direction, and too few releases that feel genuinely compelling.

The Current Catalog

For me, as someone with a large wrist, the 47mm and 44mm models are the ones that matter most.

Radiomir. The current Radiomir collection offers almost nothing that interests me. I had some initial curiosity about the Bronzo, the PAM 00760, but that disappeared the moment I saw the price. I prefer clean dials and historically accurate pieces that connect directly to the brand’s past. That should matter most in the Radiomir line, which ought to be the purest expression of Panerai’s identity.

Due. The Due line does not exist for me. I refuse to consider those watches.

Luminor. The Luminor line has a few examples worth discussing.

PAM 01732. I like the new PAM 01732 destro: the color combination is excellent. But once you hold it in your hands, you can see the shortcut Panerai took. The brand essentially rotated the watch 180 degrees to the left, which makes the whole experience feel off and awkward in use. The dial was then rotated 180 degrees to the right, to create a so-called destro. That feels lazy. I have already seen at least two owners open their PAM 01732 and flip the dial back, effectively turning it into a regular Luminor with a blue dial.

PAM 01628. Some would call the PAM 01628 the modern PAM 00372, and it is a beautiful watch. The problem is the price. Brand-new PAM 01628s have been declining on value on the grey market for months, and I recently saw dealers offering them for roughly two-thirds of the boutique price, complete with box, papers, and an eight-year extended warranty.

Submersible. If there is one Panerai line I have grown to appreciate, it is the Submersible. After a long time, something about it finally clicked for me.

To be clear, I am not referring to the 42mm models, the Navy SEALs editions, the Luna Rossa releases, the eSteel versions, or the 44mm models whose case materials do not match their 47mm counterparts, but they cost more. I am thinking instead of references such as the PAM 00305/01305/02305, PAM 01616/02616, PAM 00692/02692 (amazing color combo), PAM 01232, and earlier pieces like the PAM 00024, PAM 00025, PAM 00064, PAM 00087, PAM 00371 and of course the Bronzos, which are simply stunning.

This line could have been more successful if Panerai had priced it in line with the brand’s actual position in the market. Instead, boutique pricing has been excessive, and it pushes away potential buyers at a lower price point. For some reason the thinking here is to appeal to people with more money. If those are smart, they would go to other brands to acquire timepieces with much more value.

The Fake-Watch Argument

Finally, there is the fake-watch issue. Some people attribute Panerai’s decline in both new and secondary-market sales to the growth of the Chinese clone-watch industry. I do not buy that argument. Larger and stronger brands face the same problem, often on a bigger scale. Blaming clones for Panerai’s troubles ignores the brand’s own mistakes. Panerai needs to fix those first before pointing to the rest of the market.

I love Panerai watches, but I fear that at this rate this brand is going to lose its footing faster than anyone thinks.